"Smart Kicking: Boks' Quest for Back-to-Back World Cups"

 



I thought it would be insightful to delve into some statistics and their potential implications for the Springboks in their quest to defeat New Zealand in the Rugby World Cup final. Analyzing key metrics from the opening game between France and New Zealand, as well as the quarterfinal clash of Ireland against New Zealand, provides valuable insights into where the World Cup might be decided for the Boks.

France vs All blacks

The statistics below reveal a distinct pattern in the France vs. New Zealand match. Notably, France outperformed in kicking and consistently kept the game in New Zealand's half. In terms of attack, New Zealand dominated in passes made, doubled the defenders beaten, and covered a substantial distance of 631m, compared to France's 449m. It's evident that the All Blacks heavily relied on an expansive running game, aligning with their strategic approach to secure victory.

In matches of this caliber, where top-tier teams face off, the set piece performance becomes crucial, serving as a foundational platform for both sides. In this game, both teams demonstrated a relatively even proficiency in those aspects.

However, the decisive factor seemed to be discipline, with New Zealand conceding 12 penalties compared to France's 4. Maintaining composure and minimizing the penalty count will be paramount for the Springboks if they aim to secure success against such formidable opponents. We know that if Pollard starts there will be no doubt that the Boks will go for poles. In this game France proved how having a strong kicking game and accurate goal kickers can assist in winning.

Score

  • France 27-13 New Zealand

Kicks 

  • France 44-39 New Zealand 

Territory 

  • France 62% -38% New Zealand

Attack 

Tries 

  • France 2-2 New Zealand

Passes 

  • France 108-154 New Zealand 

Defenders beaten 

  • France 16-32 New Zealand

Offloads 

  • France 11-7 New Zealand

Defenders beaten 

  • France 16-32 New Zealand
Metres Run
  • France 449-631 New Zealand

Rucks won 

  • France 55/59-75/80 New Zealand (both 93%)

Defence

  • France 81%-85% New Zealand (tackle completion)

Set piece

Scrums 

  • France 4/5-5/7 New Zealand 

Lineouts 

  • France 13/13-10/11 New Zealand 

Penalties conceded 

  • France 4-12 New Zealand


Ireland vs All Blacks

The parallels between how France overcame New Zealand and how New Zealand, in turn, assimilated those lessons to defeat Ireland and advance to the semi-finals are striking. New Zealand orchestrated a strategic kicking game, outperforming Ireland with 33 kicks to their 20. Despite not dominating the territory stats, New Zealand's astute kicking applied pressure effectively. At this level, every kick should align with a specific plan—whether it's to apply pressure, relieve, or score—and New Zealand executed this with precision.

Looking at the attack, Ireland led in passes by 325-137, defenders beaten 31-22, and meters run 633m to 437m. Ireland's intent with ball in hand was clear, but New Zealand adeptly defended against their efforts. Notably, Ireland didn't find opportunities to launch from scrums. However, set-piece performances remained evenly matched, echoing the earlier France vs. New Zealand encounter.

Discipline emerged as a pivotal aspect, with both teams conceding only 10 penalties each—a testament to the closeness of the game and the emphasis both sides placed on minimizing errors. Ireland showcased a running game, but New Zealand's strategic kicking, solid defense, and seizing of opportunities ultimately made the difference. For me in this game kicking and taking opportunities wins games! Again a trend when it comes to kicking.

Score 

  • Ireland 24-28 New Zealand 

Kicks 

  • Ireland 20-33 New Zealand
Territory 
  • Ireland 59%-41% New Zealand

Attack

Tries 

  • Ireland 3-3 New Zealand 

Passes 

  • Ireland 325-137 New Zealand

Defenders beaten 

  • Ireland 31-22 New Zealand 

Metres run

  • Ireland 633-437 New Zealand

Offloads 

  • Ireland 8-3 New Zealand 

Rucks won 

  • Ireland 129/134-94/97 New Zealand (96% for both)

Defence

  • Ireland 88%-88% New Zealand 

Set piece

Scrums 

  • Ireland 0/0-5/5 New Zealand 

Lineouts 

  • Ireland 13/15-8/8 New Zealand 

Penalties conceded 

Ireland 10- 10 New Zealand 

In summary, the Springboks face a strategic challenge, requiring a nuanced approach to kicking that balances applying pressure, relieving it, and creating scoring opportunities—an area where their capabilities are beyond doubt. Discipline becomes pivotal, demanding that they avoid conceding penalties in their half while effectively applying pressure in New Zealand's territory to maintain scoreboard control and pressure.

The set piece promises to be a fierce battle, with scrum penalties and intelligent lineout mauling and breakouts becoming decisive moments. The Boks showcased their proficiency in this aspect at Twickenham when they outperformed New Zealand. Both teams will emphasize scoring tries, putting defensive capabilities to the test. The Boks must defend transition zones and anticipate New Zealand's multifaceted threats of running, passing and kicking.

Winning collisions, applying pressure at source and slowing down New Zealand's ball without incurring penalties emerge as critical tasks. Ultimately, the difference may lie in smart kicking, seizing opportunities and maintaining discipline. As the matchup intensifies, I extend my best wishes to Wayne Barnes for what promises to be a fiercely contested game. Can the Boks secure a back-to-back triumph? The answer awaits on the field. Kick more or less?

Thanks to ESPN for the stats, always reliable and useful to understanding the game.


Katleho Lynch

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